Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector ended the opening quarter of the year on a stronger footing, buoyed by signs of improving domestic demand, said the latest Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI survey.
Inflows of new work rose the most in almost four years in March, leading to stronger growth in business activity. However, with capacity pressures remaining muted, employment fell slightly and for first time in five years. Average prices charged for goods and services meanwhile edged lower for the fifth month running despite a slight increase in firms’ overall operating expenses.
Commenting on the Saudi Arabia PMI survey, Khatija Haque, head of Mena Research at Emirates NBD, said: “The average PMI reading for Q1 2019 was 56.5, indicating the strongest quarterly expansion in the non-oil private sector since Q4 2017. However, the rebound in new orders and business output in recent months has not fed through to job growth, with private sector employment declining for only the third time in the series history last month. There also appears to be very little pricing power for firms, with selling prices declining (albeit only marginally) for the fifth month in a row.”
The main findings of the March survey were as follows:
• New order growth accelerates to fastest since April 2015
• Employment edges lower amid lack of capacity pressures
• Output prices fall slightly for fifth month running
Underpinned by stronger increases in new orders and output across the non-oil private sector, the headline seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – a composite gauge designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy – climbed to 56.8 in March, from February’s 56.6. The latest reading was the highest since December 2017 and indicated one of the strongest growth performances over the past three-and-a-half years.
March saw the rate of new business growth accelerate for the fifth time in the past six months to the highest since April 2015. Surveyed firms reported that the upturn largely reflected stronger market conditions, with greater sales efforts, improving product offerings and competitive pricing also helping to attract customers.
New export orders rose for the first time in three months but only marginally, indicating that the main impetus continued to come from domestic sources. The output of goods and services across the non-oil private sector likewise increased at a faster rate in March. Growth in output was at a seven-month high, though still below the historical series average (since 2009). Higher business activity in turn saw companies raise their buying levels and boost stocks of purchases.
Despite the sustained recovery in demand, there remained only mild pressure on business capacity. The level of backlogs of work barely rose during March, posting the smallest monthly increase since October last year. As such, data showed a reduced appetite for new hires, with non-oil private sector employment falling slightly to end a near five-year sequence of workforce growth.
With firms looking to boost sales through competitive pricing, March saw a slight decrease in average prices charged for goods and services – the fifth in as many months. That said, most firms left their selling prices unchanged. On the cost front, data showed a modest rise in firms overall operating expenses, in part reflecting slight increases in both purchase prices staff pay.
Finally, confidence towards future output remained strongly positive, despite the degree of optimism easing from January’s recent peak. – TradeArabia News Service
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